key points:
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Weak labor and consumer data are often preceded by bitcoin rallies, with some analysts estimated future economic incentive programs.
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The job inauguration in March was 7.2 million.
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If wears the previous pattern, Bitcoin can rally by mid -July and possibly reach $ 140,000 by October 2025.
Macroeconomic conditions have long been seen as a major impact on cryptocurrency prices. Generally, bitcoins (BTCs) and ultcoin perform poorly when investors are afraid that employment and consumer data are weakening.
According to the report of Jolts of an American Labor Department released on 29 April, the opening of the job in March reached its lowest levels in four years. American employers posted 7.2 million vacancies in March, out of 7.5 million economists. Meanwhile, the US consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in April, reaching its lowest point since January 2021.
The deteriorating circumstances increase the possibility that the central banks will introduce economic incentive measures, which will make the overall impact on the cryptocurrency markets uncertain. Typically, excess liquidity encourages investment in risk-property such as bitcoin, as more capital flows into the economy.
The expectations of the future matters more than today’s weak economic figures
Last time when the US experienced a decline in the opening of the job and weakening consumer confidence was between January and June 2024. After this, in three months, the price of bitcoin increased between $ 53,000 and $ 66,000. Then, a 60% rally began in mid -October, pushed over $ 100,000 to BTC. The end result was positive, but it took more than 105 days to show this effect in the Cryptocurrency market.
Although these conditions may look worrisome at first, weak labor and consumer spirit are usually backward looking backward. Financial markets and companies base their decisions on expectations for future economic development rather than previous data only. In addition, better emotion among crypto investors comes after some confirmation of macroeconomic conditions. This explains why the 105-day interval is not uncommon.
Prior to 2024, a similar situation occurred between January and June 2023, which led to a decline in both job market data and consumer confidence. The next four months were difficult, as the price of bitcoin fell 18% to $ 25,000. By the end of October, the price took 115 days to a price of up to $ 30,500. Although the following two months were very positive, BTC rose 45% to $ 43,900.
In the last eight years, last eight years when both the labor market and consumer confidence were faced, which was between February 2020 and May 2020 just after the implementation of the Kovid -19 lockdown. In this period, Bitcoin was dropped below $ 4,000 on March 13, 2020. As a result, investors were expected to have a long period of consolidation before gaining confidence in the crypto markets.
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Can Bitcoin be hit by $ 140,000 by October?
Given the macroeconomic data, there was no major impact on bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, as its price increased from $ 8,900 to $ 10,600, 20% profit. However, an impressive 85% rally in the next 60 days increased to $ 19,700. For the third time, weak labor and consumer emotion data were scheduled to come before the rally at bitcoin prices.
While the time between economic conditions and the lowest point of bitcoin rally was from 105 to 130 days, the result was clear in all three cases. Therefore, if the inauguration of the US job and consumer confidence improves from April 2025, it is likely that the price of bitcoin will increase by mid -July. If history repeats itself, it can mean a minimum target of $ 140,000 by October 2025, but further positive macroeconomic data is required to confirm this approach.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intention and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The ideas, ideas and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and not necessarily reflected or represented the ideas and ideas of the components.
