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On-chain data shows that Dogecoin (DOGE) is one of the altcoins that has seen significant losses for traders in the 6-month period, which could help push the coin’s price higher again.
Dogecoin MVRV suggests DOGE could offer a buying window
a new Post Over on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has discussed how assets like Dogecoin and XRP (XRP) are looking in relation to trader returns on various timeframes.
The indicator of relevance here is the popular “market value to realized value” (MVRV), which looks at the ratio between the value placed by investors in an asset as a whole (i.e., market capitalization) and the value they put into the asset (realized capitalization).
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When the metric has a value greater than 1, investors are currently in a position of net unrealized profits. On the other hand, it being under the cutoff means that the market is dominated by losses.
Historically, whenever investors in a cryptocurrency are in a position of high leverage, its price is more likely to surge, as in such situations the likelihood of a large-scale sell-off for profit-taking purposes becomes significant.
Similarly, an asset price decline occurs when most investors are in losses and sellers reach a state of exhaustion.
Based on these facts, Santiment has developed an “opportunity and danger zone model” that tracks how the mid-term variances of MVRV have deviated from the norm for various coins in the region. Below is a chart of the model shared by the analytics firm.
The “medium-term” versions of MVRV specifically target investors who have made purchases within the 30-day, 90-day, and 6-month timeframes. When the divergences of these metrics are positive for an asset, it means that the said coin may be undervalued right now. Similarly, a negative divergence suggests a potentially overvalued situation.
It is clear from the graph that most altcoins are currently in the bullish zone, and the divergence of some of them has even crossed the 1 level, which is in line with the area that Santiment classifies as the “opportunity zone.”
According to the analytics firm, Dogecoin, Toncoin (TON) and Ethereum (ETH) have recently seen the lowest 6-month MVRV values, with traders who bought them in the last six months losing 32%, 23% and 22% respectively. Interestingly, unlike these assets, XRP’s 6-month traders are in profit.
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Santiment says, “As a trader, if you enjoy making profits, you will want to be in assets where other traders are in pain and seeing losses.” Based on this, Dogecoin may provide the best window into the top coins, while XRP may be the worst option.
DOGE price
At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading around $0.0975, down more than 3% over the past week.
Featured image Dall-E from Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com