After less than four months in power, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government has lost a no-confidence vote in parliament over a social security budget dispute.
On Wednesday evening, 331 French legislators from left- and right-wing parties out of a total of 577 legislators voted in the lower house of the French Parliament in favor of removing the former EU Brexit negotiator and his administration.
Barnier, 73, was due to officially submit his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday morning. The last time a prime minister resigned following a motion of no-confidence was in 1962, when Prime Minister Michel Debré, the founder of the Fifth Republic and who served under French President Charles de Gaulle, resigned over the Algerian crisis.
Barnier’s resignation has not only thrown Paris into political chaos for the second time this year, but also left the country without a budget for 2025.
A statement from the Elysee Palace said President Macron would address the nation on Thursday evening about what happens next.
What happened because of the no-confidence vote?
French lawmakers from the country’s leftist coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), tabled a vote against Barnier’s latest austerity budget. This was later supported by the far-right National Rally (RN), when Barnier tried to push the budget through parliament without a vote.
His budget bill included tax increases of 60 billion euros ($63.2 billion) and government spending cuts to social security and welfare of about 40 billion euros ($42.1 billion), designed to address the country’s deficit.
France’s public deficit is equivalent to about 6.1 percent of its gross domestic product. Barnier had stated his intention to bring it in line with EU rules, under which countries must not have a budget deficit ratio of more than 3 percent.
“The choice we made was to protect the French,” Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right RN, told French broadcaster TF1 on Wednesday after the no-confidence vote. The RN wanted Barnier’s budget to include an increase in the state pension and a provision to eliminate Medicare reimbursement cuts, among other budget concession demands.
“The main responsible for the current situation is Emmanuel Macron. The disinformation and censorship are the result of their policies and the significant rift that exists today between them and the French,” he said.
Speaking to France’s BFM TV on Monday, Mathilde Panot of the leftist France Unbiased (La France Insoumise, LFI) parliamentary group said: “This historic event is a powerful signal: no matter what happens, people can change the course of history. Now Macron will have to go.” France has been protesting against Macron’s rule since his pension plan reform raised the national retirement age.
Experts say that the unity of Left and Right in France on this issue indicates deep dissatisfaction with the current government.
“I guess I was surprised by [no-confidence vote] Gesine Weber, a research fellow at the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Al Jazeera.
“I did not expect that the RN party would support something brought by the left force. But on the other hand, I think it also tells you a lot about the strategy of these political parties whose main ambition is to see this government fall and gradually poison the political environment to such an extent that Macron is forced out of office. Have to get out of,” he added.
What does this mean for Macron?
Macron, President of France since 2017, has a mandate until 2027, when the country’s next presidential election will be held. However, several opposition figures, such as Panot and RN adviser Philip Oliver, have called on him to step down soon.
“There is no compulsion or even expectation that he will resign – it is just something that some people in the opposition are requesting/suggesting. France is a semi-presidential system, and the government and the presidency are two separate entities,” Marta Lorimer, a politics lecturer at Britain’s Cardiff University, told Al Jazeera.
Weber said that although Macron could step down soon if he wanted, it was highly unlikely.
“There is a court case pending against Le Pen that will be decided next spring. A possible outcome of this case is that he will not be allowed to run for office again or run for any political office. So Macron is going to use this to his advantage,” he said.
Le Pen is currently on trial along with other members of her party on charges of embezzling EU funds – claims she denies.
Meanwhile, pressure is building on the Elysee Palace as the country waits to learn how Macron will form the next government.
Who will Macron appoint as Prime Minister now?
At this point, it’s very hard to say.
The French president has already been criticized for his choice of prime minister, particularly by the NFP, which won the most votes in snap parliamentary elections in July. He chose Barnier to appease the right, who had won the most votes in the first round of voting but had lost in the second round – to prevent the right by de-selection of some candidates for the second round by center and left parties. After uniting for.
“In short, [Macron] “Preferred compromise with the left, with the ultra-liberal right, and with the far-right, to pursue ultra-liberal policies, despite clear rejection by the majority of the French people,” said civil society activist and member Jonathan Mächler. Said the French Communist Party told Al Jazeera.
“This motion of censure puts an end to an illegitimate government that some people were betting on. This is a good thing for our democracy.”
According to Lorimer, whoever Macron chooses will struggle to get a stable majority.
“He can either go for another minority cabinet, maybe make some kind of non-combative agreement. For example, if they appointed someone from the Left, they would have to seek consent from the Center and get the right to not vote on a no-confidence motion against them,” she said.
“He could also look at a technical profile, and appoint someone with a fairly narrow mandate, but who could at least motivate France to vote on budget legislation for the year 2025. Finally, “He can once again try and facilitate the creation of a broad coalition of centre, centre-right and centre-left, but to do so, he will need to break the left first,” Lorimer said. Said.
Weber thinks Macron will appoint a short-term caretaker government that will basically pass a provisional budget for France, preventing the country from slipping into economic crisis.
What does this mean for Le Pen?
French right-wing leader Le Pen, whose RN political party was projected to win July’s snap election after winning the most votes in the first round, is keen to become the country’s president in 2027.
Some analysts say his party’s vote against Barnier could also be risky for his presidential aspirations as the vote has thrown France into political turmoil.
“Le Pen is now in full ‘damage control’ mode,” Lorimer said.
Lorimer said, “They realize that voting for a motion of no confidence, which could potentially plunge France into serious political and economic turmoil, goes against the strategy of ‘respectability’.”
“This is why she appears almost indifferent in her reaction to the fall of the Barnier government: the party line appears to be ‘We take no pleasure in bringing down the government, but we are forced to do so because the alternative. “Would have been worse,” Lorimer said.
Speaking to the French news network, TF1, on Wednesday night, Le Pen said: “We voted to condemn the government in order to protect the French people with this budget.
“We have been constructive from the beginning, and we will be with the next Prime Minister who will need to propose a new budget. We want our voters to be respected and their demands heard.”
How have people in France reacted?
Barbara Darbois*, who lives in Avignon, south-eastern France, told Al Jazeera she wonders if her country has been hit by “la catastrophe”.
However, he said, France is accustomed to such low levels. “Look at our football team, they can be world champions and four years later be very weak. We expect a new Prime Minister soon… I would bet on Article 16 if the government falls again.
Article 16 of the French Constitution grants the President extraordinary powers to decide when French institutions or territory are threatened.
Mächler said the French people “seem to be more tired of Macron and his ultra-liberal and increasingly right-wing policies than of the current, temporary instability”. In general, they are expected to see changes to some of their policies as a direct result of this no-confidence vote.
He said dissatisfaction with Macron’s policies has flared up in France – as seen in the 2018 Yellow Vests movement (protests over fuel tax hikes), the 2023 Retirement Pensions movement (protests against Macron’s pension reforms and his plan to raise the retirement age from 62), Was displayed during the scheme). to 64), the 2023 protests against police violence, the 2024 farmers’ protests (demonstrating better wages and protection from foreign competition), along with feminist movements and most recently the Palestine protests.
“I would say there is a mixture of relief, hope and concern, given the unprecedented nature of the situation,” he said.
“Relief is inevitable because the budget that was proposed [and which provoked the motion of censure] Macron’s destructive policies deepened further. There is hope, because changes in policies can now finally be implemented, if Macron ever accepts the NFP’s victory. [in the snap elections],
What does this mean for Europe?
Political instability in France has come at a time when preparations are going on for Donald Trump to become President in America. Trump is also set to visit the French capital over the weekend to reopen Notre Dame Cathedral.
Shayari Malhotra, deputy director and Europe Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, said Trump’s presidency is an uncertain time for Europe to be leaderless due to his contempt for NATO, which could have adverse implications for European security. Can have an impact.
“Instead of outwardly displaying unity when the continent is still at war [Russia’s war in Ukraine]Europe’s key member states, both France and Germany, are facing political crises domestically,” she told Al Jazeera.
“France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy and the EU’s primary military power, and President Macron has been a leading champion of European integration, including strengthening European defense. “Political instability in France is likely to continue, even if Macron appoints a new prime minister… There will be impasse when it comes to decision-making,” she continued.
“In Brussels, a new European Commission has just taken shape, amid waves of the far right. But the unfortunate push-and-pull of domestic politics means less bandwidth for the Franco-German engine to engage with broader European stability and security.
