The Buffalo Bills’ Super Bowl lore is hardly super.
Four straight trips, four consecutive losses.
A heartbreaking ending followed by three bombshells. More than thirty years have passed, and Buffalo is still not back.
That’s about to change.
Behind MVP candidate Josh Allen, a commanding run game and an opportunistic defense, the Bills are one win from a trip to New Orleans for their first Super Bowl since “The Lion King” was released in 1994.
First, Buffalo must exorcize some playoff demons in the AFC Championship against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who have defeated the Allen Bills all three times in the postseason.
After that, Buffalo will battle either the ground-and-pound Philadelphia Eagles or the upstart Washington Commanders for the Lombardi Trophy on February 9.
The Bills have an edge on each of the three remaining teams, and I’ll explain how they would win over Kansas City before facing the NFC East team for the title.
First up: Who will the two-time defending champion Chiefs and Bills beat because…
They run the ball well.
Buffalo averaged the ninth-most rushing yards in the regular season (131.2) and continued to lead the way in the playoffs. The Bills rushed for 210 yards against Denver’s third-ranked run defense in the wild-card game and averaged at least 4.1 yards per carry in both contests, holding Baltimore’s top-ranked unit to 14–7 in the divisional round. Made a difference.
James Cook has done the majority of the work on the ground this postseason, but Allen has put up 66 rushing yards and can be especially dangerous on makeshift runs. The Chiefs learned a hard lesson in Week 11, when Allen ran for a 26-yard score on fourth-and-2 to seal Buffalo’s 30–21 victory.
Kansas City had the league’s eighth-best run defense in the regular season, but looked weak against Houston in the divisional round. The Texans averaged 5.1 yards per carry, with Joe Mixon gaining 88 yards on 18 totes. Despite playing with an injured ankle,
The Chiefs sacked Houston quarterback CJ Stroud eight times last Saturday, but they should be less of a threat in the pass rush on Sunday if the Bills establish the run early and sustain it throughout the game.
Now onto the Big Easy, where the Bills will beat the Commanders because…
They avoid turnover.
Jayden Daniels is leading Washington’s offense brilliantly and will almost certainly win the Rookie of the Year award, but his teammates on defense have had some of the Commander’s biggest games of the postseason.
Last Saturday against top-seeded Detroit in the divisional round, Washington had a season-high five takeaways – including a pick-six – which led to 21 points in a 45-31 upset win. A week earlier, the Commanders forced a key fumble in the fourth quarter that led to a touchdown in their 23–20 wild-card win over Tampa Bay.
Washington is 12-3 this season when it forces at least one turnover and 2-2 when it doesn’t. This makes it even more important for the Bills to protect the football, which they have done better than every team this season. Buffalo committed a league-low eight turnovers during the regular season and has not had any since Week 16.
The Commanders have paid teams to turn it around in the postseason, but the Bills will be in very good position if Allen and company avoid the uncharacteristic mistakes that provide Washington with significant blowouts of momentum.
Even if the Commanders don’t make it out of the NFC, the Bills will beat the Eagles because…
They could include Saquon Barkley.
Philadelphia’s star running back posted only the ninth 2,000-yard campaign in league history and led the Eagles to the first two rounds of the playoffs proper.
Buffalo’s run defense ranked 12th during the regular season, but the first half of the divisional round provided a glimpse of how strong that unit can be. After allowing Derrick Henry to rush for 199 yards in Week 4, the Bills held Baltimore’s offense to just 21 yards before halftime last Sunday.
Henry finally took over in the second half and finished with 84 yards, while the Ravens finished with 176 on 30 carries. Buffalo’s defense softened after halftime as Baltimore effectively balanced the run and pass, but the Bills still forced three turnovers against a Ravens team that had committed only 11 turnovers all season.
Buffalo should be able to lock in on Barkley without worrying too much about the Eagles’ passing game, which was the fourth least efficient during the regular season (187.9 yards per game). Barkley has been the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense during the playoffs, with his 324 rushing yards accounting for more than half of the team’s total offense.
The Bills won’t bother Barkley, but their opportunistic defense will make enough plays to support Allen and help bring Buffalo its long-awaited first title.
