Manchester City were beaten at Villa Park last season too, but if that defeat was surprising, the most worrying thing about the 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa is that it was almost expected. The villas were stronger, faster and better organized.
John Duran and Morgan Rodgers have real quality with the ball, but Aston Villa’s two scorers also epitomize the physicality that is completely absent from City’s game at the moment. They not only look weak but also appear lethargic.
This was evident in the first seconds of the match when John McGinn fouled Josko Guardiol, Duran almost repeated the feat with Stefan Ortega in the second half in which Aston Villa completely defeated the reigning Premier League champions.
City looked vulnerable on the counter-attack throughout, as has become the new normal for this team. But trying to overcome this decline in form caused by Rodri’s absence is no longer viable when so many aspects of his game are failing to work.
This is Manchester City not creating enough chances.
“We’ve scored a goal,” the City supporters sarcastically shouted when Phil Foden scored late on. Rival fans are unlikely to be too sympathetic to the plight of the four-time defending champions just yet, but they do have a point.
City have scored just 10 goals in their last nine Premier League games dating back to two months ago. Incredibly, only Leicester, Everton and Southampton have scored less in that time. All this from a team that still features Erling Haaland at forward.
The Norwegian is shouldering the responsibility for that scoring collapse. “I’m looking at myself first, I’m not creating my chances. I have to do better because it’s not good enough.” That’s now two goals in eight Premier League games.
“I don’t agree with them,” said Pep Guardiola when Haaland’s comments were put to him after the game. “Without him, we’d be worse off.” Recently he reported that the cover options for Haaland are Phil Foden and Oscar Bob, he is certainly right.
And it’s not as simple as Haaland’s finishing going awry. His 13 goals this season have come from an expected total of 13.21 goals. In other words, he’s underperforming a little bit based on the quality of the opportunities he’s faced – but not by much.
The big difference compared to last season is that Haaland is no longer getting the opportunities he used to. Their total expected goals per 90 minutes is higher at 0.78, but not as high as last season (1.03) or the season before that (0.92). This is a matter of particular concern.
City’s attacking play is now so dependent on feeding Haaland, even if he touches the ball so rarely that it sometimes doesn’t feel like it. There was a time when the team’s wingers themselves scored a lot of goals. Now they are going to supply it.
As a strategy, this led to two more Premier League titles as well as the Champions League that City desired. But this suggests that they have become a little more predictable. There aren’t that many different ways they can hurt teams anymore.
Riyad Mahrez scored 15 goals in his final season for City, having scored 24 goals the year before. When the Algerian charged in and prepared to shoot, the crowd anticipated the goal. When Jack Grealish did the same against Aston Villa, it almost reached the corner flag.
Grealish, who had space to work with against his former club but failed to take advantage, has not scored for City in over a year. Savinho is still waiting for his first City goal. Rahim Sterling used to score many easy goals at the back post. Not anymore.
Man City’s wingers remain wide but that means they are rarely a direct threat to goal
Haaland may have only two goals in his last eight Premier League games, but none of his team-mates have managed to surpass him in that time. Guardiol is the only other player to find the net more than once. The contribution of defenders is not only welcome but now essential.
Not enough scoring anymore, not enough creating anymore. How did this happen? The way to stop them has also been cleared. At Villa, it was clear that Unai Emery’s team were relatively comfortable in front of City, slowly moving the ball from one side to the other.
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Pep Guardiola says former Manchester City player Morgan Rodgers has ‘exploded’
They need to move it faster and they need off-the-ball movement. Ilkay Gundogan was once a master at it, but it’s hard to expect a 34-year-old midfielder to continue those bursts beyond the back line. Bernardo Silva also looks tired.
The result is that while Guardiola and Emery both pointed to a period of the first half during which City were building some momentum, the result is that they still did not create enough chances to take anything from the game. again.
The total expected goals of 1.03 highlights that this is not an aberration due to poor finishing. City scored exactly as many goals at Villa as they were creative – as they were beaten 2-1 by Manchester United (expected goals: 0.95).
It is the first time this season that City have scored so little in back-to-back games and raises a worrying thought for Guardiola that they could be worse. And how can he expect this team to be more creative when they’re already hurting so much?
“I have to find solutions, find a balance to create opportunities.” The fear is that by losing a key player and losing a few others over time, he is left with a team that is no longer able to function as it should. At both ends of the pitch.
