Travis Kling, founder and chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management, is proposing a direct correlation between the outcome of the US presidential election and the price of Bitcoin. Through X, Kling delves deep into the political dynamics and their perceived implications for crypto markets, particularly focusing on the potential re-election of Donald Trump.
Why could September 10 be important for Bitcoin?
Kling’s Analysis Many rely on major political events and their corresponding effects on speculative markets, which they believe reflect macroeconomic expectations. “NFA. I’m often wrong. Bitcoin is probably trading with a correlation to a Trump win. And that makes sense to me. BTC/crypto will do much better under a Trump administration,” Kling said.
He pointed to the perceived shortcomings of the Democratic National Convention and the expected endorsement of Trump by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as pivotal moments that could drive Bitcoin’s price higher. “The DNC is not going particularly well. RFK is going to endorse Trump on Friday. These factors are showing up on the Polymarket and if RFK goes for Trump, my guess is that Poly will move further and further up,” Kling said. He expects these developments to peak on Sept. 10.
Related reading
That’s when former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris will have their first debate in Philadelphia. “Trump is destined to lose, in my opinion. If he stands up for Kamala the way he did for Biden, the poll/poly should be even wider.”
Kling expects the price of Bitcoin to rise to $72,000. “Since BTC is trading with Trump, I think all of this will combine to push BTC back to the top of the 6-month range,” Kling predicted.
However, he also warned against too much optimism. Kling is not sure BTC price can break out of the trading range established in mid-March “before the election, unless Pol/Poly really moves in Trump’s favor. Hate it or love it, this election is very important to us, short-term price action is just one aspect of it.”
Notably, not everyone agrees with Kling’s opinion. Matthew Siegel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, provided a contrary view. “Bitcoin is not currently trading with trump odds, although I expect that to change,” Siegel said.
Related reading
FalconX, a leading crypto prime broker, also recently conducted an analysis that examined the correlation between Bitcoin prices and Trump’s electoral prospects on Polymarket – a platform for betting on political outcomes. From June 1 to August 15, their findings showed no clear relationship, underlining that other factors may have influenced Bitcoin’s price more significantly. These factors included the sale of 50,000 BTC by the German government and liquidations by former customers of Mt Gox.
Undoubtedly the alliance of Trump and Kennedy Jr. will be extremely positive for Bitcoin. While it increases Trump’s chances of winning the US election, another strong Bitcoin supporter will join the Trump campaign. Like Trump, Kennedy Jr. has also advocated substantial government involvement in Bitcoin, proposing that the Treasury Department should buy 550 Bitcoins per day until it has 4 million BTC in reserve.
At press time, BTC was trading at $61,067.
Featured image created by DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
