Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday with a matchup between two rivals who could be vying for the AFC East crown in December.
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins may have started the year off at 1-0, but both teams had to overcome early double-digit deficits last Sunday to do so (despite being home favorites!).
Before you turn on Prime Video for “Thursday Night Football,” here are the three betting options we like the most for Buffalo-Miami:
Buffalo Stampede
The Bills have an 11-1 record against the Dolphins since Dec. 30, 2018, including 10 regular-season wins and a wild-card round win two postseasons ago. These numbers are reminiscent of another rivalry in this division, the New England Patriots’ absolute dominance over the New York Jets.
“It’s going to be a story that we can’t beat the Bills,” Tua Tagovailoa said this week“And until we beat them, and we continue to beat them, nothing is going to change that.”
Miami enters as a 2.5-point favorite, and if you apply the old rule that home-field advantage gives a team three points, then these teams are basically tied.
But given the Bills’ total ownership of this series, and the Dolphins’ dangerous one-two running back combo of Raheem Mostert and Da’Von Achen (more on them below) being injured, we’re with Buffalo until we see Tagovailoa and company flip that narrative.
The Pick: Bills Moneyline, +120 (FanDuel)
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Be happy
Mostert has been ruled out for Thursday’s game with a chest injury, while Achen (ankle) is considered a game-time out after practising Wednesday.
There’s still speed all around the field for Miami, especially with star receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, whose YAC potential offers the possibility to boost Tagovailoa’s passing totals.
Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown the ball for 300 yards against Buffalo since a 56-26 loss in the final week of his rookie season. But no quarterback bettered Tua’s 338 yards against Jacksonville in Week 1, most of which came on the way to a comeback after the Jaguars jumped ahead early.
You could see a similar script this week, where Tagovailoa has to hold his team back in the passing game. Of the alternative passing-yard targets we could choose from, 275 seems like the perfect mix of risk and reward.
The Pick: Tua Tagovailoa 275+ Passing Yards, +110 (DraftKings)
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Rookie’s impressive debut
Get ready to learn Jaylen Wright’s name. The Dolphins selected the running back from Tennessee in the fourth round, and he didn’t play in Week 1, but he will benefit the most Mostert and possibly Achane will be sidelined.
Word coming out of Dolphins camp is that the team likes Wright, and he was an intriguing sleeper pick in many fantasy leagues. Much like the San Francisco 49ers, the Dolphins can plug any young player into their outside zone scheme and get first down after first down — did you see Jordan Mason for the Niners on Monday?
This is where looking for better odds pays off. Reflecting the buzz surrounding Wright, Fanduel has him listed at just +140 to score a touchdown anytime — very low odds for a kid who has never played an NFL game before. DraftKings offers a more respectable number for us to get.
The pick: Jaylen Wright, anytime TD scorer, +170 (DraftKings)
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