China
China is preparing for a trade war. Mr Trump has promised to impose a sweeping tariff on Chinese exports, which Beijing is counting on to shore up its weak economy.
Some in China hope for improved relations with the United States, which are already contentious. Mr. Trump took a confrontational approach toward China during his first term, imposing tariffs, restricting Chinese technology companies and deepening ties with Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims.
Mr Trump is regarded around the world as a transactional leader. But Chinese officials told me privately that they expect to have difficulty negotiating with his administration because they view Mr. Trump as a duplicitous person. He also worries that tensions over Taiwan could worsen if he surrounds himself with radical advisers.
Chinese officials see a potential benefit if Mr Trump pulls the United States back from its role as a global leader. This may provide an opportunity for China to fill the void, bring more countries to China’s side economically and diplomatically, and weaken US alliances that constrain China.
However, those changes could take years to materialize, and the immediate concern is that another Trump term could create global instability at a time when China’s economy can least afford it.
India
India is in a better position than many major countries for Trump’s second term. This is a counterweight to China that could help diversify global supply chains. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also shared a close relationship with Mr Trump during his first term.
But Mr Trump’s long-term unpredictability could challenge the Indian bureaucracy’s notorious preference for slow and steady progress. And during the campaign he referred to India’s high tariffs on American goods, saying he would respond to it.
Immigration is another point of friction. Mr Trump banned it in his first term Visa used by many Indians In the United States, whoever makes Third largest population of undocumented US immigrantsMr Trump threatened with deportation Can have a big impact on relationships,
Africa
In a rapidly changing and young continent, millions will be eager to see how Mr Trump’s second term might be different.
During his first term, his engagement with the continent varied from disdain to neglect – he did not visit the continent even once. Now, Trump is expected to take a transactional approach to Africa that will promote US business interests.
They face at least one major decision affecting the continent: a law set to expire in 2025 that provides duty-free access to the US market for dozens of African countries. The legislation could be a target if Mr. Trump aggressively pushes tariffs. His administration will also likely battle China for resources on the continent, especially rare minerals needed for electric vehicles and wind turbines.
A Trump presidency could reduce U.S. military influence in Africa, even as civil war and violent insurgency spreads across the continent. Russia has become the preferred security partner of many African governments, and US troops have been pulled out of countries such as Niger and Chad.
Israel and Gaza
While Israelis from many political backgrounds expected Mr Trump to win, his victory was swiftly celebrated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his right-wing government.
The Israeli right hopes Mr Trump will support the return of Jewish residents to Gaza, support tougher military actions against Iran, agree to Israel’s annexation of the occupied West Bank, and seek to weaken the power of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Will turn a blind eye to the efforts of Courts.
“This is a huge win!” Mr Netanyahu said in a statement. “Congratulations on the greatest comeback in history!”
Still, Mr. Trump is unpredictable, and in recent months he has signaled that his priorities may not always align with Israel. Last month, he appeared to rule out regime change in Iran, a dream of Israeli politicians. And in March, he expressed discomfort over some of the images of destruction coming out of Gaza, telling Israeli journalists: “You are losing a lot of support, you have to finish, you have to finish the job.”
Palestinian leaders in the West Bank did their best to get Mr Trump’s attention, increasingly congratulating him despite differences with him during his first term. Hamas spokesman Bassem Naim issued a muted statement calling the election “a private matter for Americans.”
Mexico
Mexico is preparing for a second Trump term that could be even more disruptive than the first.
The president-elect has promised a number of policies that could have huge consequences: using U.S. military force against Mexico’s drug cartels and sending thousands of troops to the border; imposing sweeping charges on allies and adversaries alike; and implementing the largest deportation campaign in U.S. history, which would cause significant social and economic harm to Mexico.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would not recognize the winner of the election until all votes were counted. He has also urged for peace. “There is no reason to worry,” he told the business community and Mexicans at home and in the United States on Wednesday. But the risks are certainly high: Mexico recently overtook China to become the largest source of imports to the United States.
Russia and Ukraine
It is clear that Mr Trump’s victory is going to have huge implications for Russia’s war in Ukraine. But no one in Moscow or Kiev knows what exactly it will be.
In Russia, there are hopes that Mr Trump will follow through on his frequent promises to end the war quickly. His running mate, JD Vance, has outlined a peace deal that analysts believe the Kremlin wants: an agreement that keeps Russia in control of the territory it occupies, and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO.
But the Kremlin is skeptical that Mr. Trump would actually push for such a deal, especially because of his track record: There was jubilation in Moscow when Mr. Trump won in 2016, but over the next four years, U.S. sanctions against Russia. Only increased, and Mr. Trump sent antitank weapons to Ukraine.
Ukraine would also have to agree to a deal – although it could be forced to do so under pressure if the United States cuts military aid. And while there are signs of growing public interest in the agreement, President Volodymyr Zelensky has been steadfast in publicly refusing to give up Ukrainian territory or the prospect of NATO membership. On Wednesday, he immediately made it clear that he would like to have Mr Trump on his side, as he was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Mr Trump in a post on Twitter.
climate
Mr Trump’s victory is a blow to efforts to rein in dangerous levels of global warming.
The United States is the biggest polluter in history, so it matters a lot whether it reduces climate pollution. Mr Trump’s record shows he has no desire to do so.
It is likely that he will once again reverse many US climate regulations. He has said that he will again withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. And he has supported more oil and gas drilling, when the United States is already the largest producer in the world. New drilling licenses could prevent more planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions for decades, making extreme weather threats more likely.
But the world has also changed since his first term. Renewable energy is cheaper than ever, with much of the supply chain controlled by China. The Biden administration’s landmark climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, has attracted new manufacturing to US shores. It may be difficult for Mr Trump to eliminate it completely.
Europe and NATO
Mr Trump’s victory will hardly be a surprise to the United States’ European allies, but it will test their ability to maintain cohesion, build up their armies and defend their economic interests if Mr Trump continues to impose those key tariffs. enforce those whom he has threatened.
“How do we deal with a United States that sees us more as a competitor and a troublemaker with whom to work than as a friend?” said Georgina Wright, deputy director of international studies at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. “It should unite Europe, but it does not mean that Europe will be united.”
Some European countries have tried to prepare for a Trump victory. But with both the French and German governments weak domestically, it may be difficult to mount a strong European response.
Mr Trump’s unpredictability – bolstered by Republican lawmakers – worries European allies. But they expect Mr. Trump to maintain some of his positions: skepticism of multilateral alliances, admiration for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin and dislike for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said French defense analyst Francois Heisberg.
Mr. Hesburgh said Mr. Trump has been effective in demanding more military spending from fellow NATO members. But Article 5 of the alliance, which commits members to collective defense, “is not considered a protection racket,” he said.
